DEVELOPMENT OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECT COST CONTINGENCY MODEL USING FUZZY EXPERT SYSTEM

Estimating cost contingency allocation accurately in a tender process is one of the key success factors of project management. However, no flexible and rational method in estimating cost contingency has been developed. This paper presents a flexible and rational approach to estimate project cost contingency for common construction projects such as building and bridge projects using risk analysis and fuzzy expert system concept. By using this technique, risk factors are identified and analyzed to determine the amount of project cost contingency using contractors’ experience and judgment. This model has been validated using four construction projects in Malaysia. According to the validation result, this fuzzy expert system model can be used to predict cost contingency value.