Short Term Load Forecasting for Small Scale Power System Using Fuzzy Logic

Load forecasting has an important role in planning and
operations in power generation plant. Many new forecasting
systems have been presented and proposed in recent years.
Gas District Cooling (GDC) plant was built to supply
electricity and chilled water for Universiti Teknologi
PETRONAS (UTP). It operates on island operation during
normal mode with utility company supply on hot standby
mode. The plant has two generation units rated at 4.2 MW
each, with a maximum generation capacity of 8.4 MW. In
this paper, a practical short term load forecasting (STLF)
method for UTP is presented. In the proposed method, a
fuzzy logic approach was used and STLF model was
designed based on UTP 2008 electricity demand data. The
proposed model was tested with actual load data for
January till June 2009 period. The test results show that the
mean absolute percentage error of 4.59%.