Electricity Forecasting for Small Scale Power System using Fuzzy Logic

Electricity supply to Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS
(UTP) comes from gas district cooling (GDC) plant as a primary
source of energy and utility company Tenaga Nasional Berhad
(TNB) as a backup. With a maximum capacity of 8.4 MW which
comes from 2 nos of gas turbine generators rated at 4.2 MW each,
this work aims to forecast short term electricity demand of the
plant. As a sole customer of the plant, UTP 2008 electricity
demand data is being used as a basis to design a forecast model
using Fuzzy Logic. With the forecast model, it will help GDC for
pre-planned scheduling and maintenance of the plant and also as
guidance for the daily operation of the plant. The proposed fuzzy
logic model is applied to obtain one week forecast load demand
data for GDC. The forecast accuracy is obtained and it is
represented in mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).