Hydraulic modeling for upstream gas production planning and allocation - Significance, challenges, and recommendations

Upstream gas supply planning and allocation contains 3 cycles namely long term (20 years - end of life of a field) mid-term (up to 1 year) and short term (72 hours). Since the upstream assets are owned/operated by different companies under various production sharing contracts, each of the operating companies prefer to maximize their production and recover the investment costs at the earliest. A regulator acts as a custodian to ensure that all stakeholder's entitlements are protected. The custodian relies on economic and hydraulic modelling to analyse the production plateau's shared by various operating companies together with the demand profiles for viability. The commercial planning team of the custodian works closely with flow assurance engineers before confirming the production numbers as the planners are unaware of any capacity constraints in the physical network for flow. In the short term, an integrated network operator breaks the long term demand numbers and controls the network for seamless delivery of gas from upstream to LNG plants (mostly). The purpose of the paper is to highlight the challenges faced by planners and engineers during the planning cycles and to make appropriate recommendations. © Copyright 2019, PSIG, Inc.